BTC Cycle
Prediction Model
One indicator that reads the entire Bitcoin cycle: it marks every phase, grades every buy zone from deep-green to danger-yellow, confirms cycle tops with three hard criteria — and draws the projected map of the next cycle in front of you.
Five phases, one engine
Bitcoin doesn't move randomly — it cycles. The model walks the same sequence every cycle has walked since 2011, and enforces one rule at every step: no buying in bear markets, no selling in bull markets.
Accumulation
After the bear has done its damage, price starts scratching along the cycle floor — the ~200-week average. The model flips the regime to Accumulation and boxes the whole basing range, wicks included. This is where cycles are bought.
Breakout
Accumulation ends one way: price breaks the basing range with the trend rising behind it. The breakout opens the Banana Zone — the bull market — and the accumulation range itself becomes the cycle's first graded buy zone.
Legs & zones
Bull markets move in legs. Each leg up leaves a pullback range behind it, and a new leg only confirms once price clears the prior high by real distance — a small push above the old high is still the same range. Every finalized pullback range is drawn as a horizontal zone and graded by where it sits on the cycle's price map: SUPER BUY → GOOD BUY → BUY → LATE BUY → DANGER BUY. Signals only fire when price actually enters a zone — no candle-by-candle spam.
Top watch
High on the map, late in the cycle, price starts tapping the same highs — double tops, triple tops. The model counts the touches and quietly suppresses new buys. Warnings only. A topping pattern by itself never triggers a single sell.
Confirmation & the bear
Only a significant, structure-breaking drop confirms the top. The exact high gets its Cycle Top line, the first SHORT prints, and the broken level becomes the Short Zone — where every bear-market rally gets sold. Sells then degrade the same way buys do: SELL → LAST SELL / EXIT → DANGER SELL as price approaches the floor. Then the floor comes, accumulation begins, and the sequence restarts.
Three criteria before a cycle can end
Most cycle indicators call tops early, often, and wrong. This model refuses to confirm a top unless all three lines of evidence agree.
Time
Every cycle top since 2013 landed inside a narrow window after the halving. Outside that window, nothing — no pattern, no drop — can end the cycle. Early false tops are structurally impossible.
Pattern
Double and triple top touches near the cycle high arm the internal top-watch and pause new buys. Pattern is a warning, never a trigger — the market is allowed to keep topping for as long as it wants.
The drop
Only a significant decline that breaks market structure confirms the top. That single event flips the regime, prints the short, and opens the Short Zone. Confirmation over prediction.
What it looks like live
The chart does the talking: phase rectangles, graded zone bands, two thin lines for the cycle's extremes, and a handful of markers. Every text label can be switched off for a pure-zones view.
A projected map, drawn in advance
The model projects the coming cycle from the diminishing-returns multiplier — each cycle's top-to-top multiple shrinks, and the decay rate is yours to set. The result is a full price ladder for the years ahead, graded exactly like the live zones.
The full toolkit
Graded buy zones
Structure-carved horizontal zones from deep-green SUPER BUY to yellow DANGER BUY, drawn on every cycle since 2011 — each historical cycle graded on its own real bottom-to-top map.
Cycle top & bottom lines
A light-blue line at the exact top wick and a light-red line at the cycle low. The bottom line is live — it steps down on every lower low until the next breakout confirms the bottom was final.
Short zone
When the top confirms, the broken structure level becomes a maroon band through the bear. Rallies into it print SHORT markers — the sell-side mirror of the buy zones.
Graded sells
SELL in the upper bear, LAST SELL / EXIT deep in the decline, DANGER SELL at the floor. The model tells you when selling stops being smart — the same way it tells you when buying does.
Regime rectangles
Bear, Accumulation and Banana Zone as soft-tinted rectangles, with halving lines and the ~200-week cycle floor plotted underneath everything.
Alerts on everything
Zone entries by grade, top watch, cycle-top short, retest shorts, graded sells, floor touches, breakouts, and every regime change — wire any of them to TradingView alerts in one click.
Sensible defaults, every knob exposed
Tuned for INDEX:BTCUSD on the daily and weekly. All lengths are defined in days and auto-adapt to your chart timeframe, and every assumption in the model is an input you can override.
Free on TradingView
The model is published as a public, free TradingView indicator. Two ways to load it:
Indicators, type vince vorn, and pick BTC Cycle Prediction Model [Vince Vorn].INDEX:BTCUSD on the 1D or 1W timeframe for the full history.
Risk disclosure
This indicator is provided free of charge for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to trade. The projections it draws are a model built from four completed Bitcoin cycles and user-defined assumptions; past cycle behavior does not guarantee future results. Trading cryptocurrencies carries a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. You are solely responsible for your own decisions and risk management.